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The Class III milk price was $15.96 in April and is expected near $16.35 for May. US milk production growth has slowed to near zero, and March output of butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk fell year over year, tightening dairy product stocks.
Slowing milk output and tighter dairy product stocks support higher milk prices, which lifts dairy cow feed demand expectations and the value of dairy byproducts used in feed.
After 237 past bullish report events, MILK moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.