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USDA's April milk production report showed output only 0.6% above a year earlier, with cow numbers nearly flat and milk per cow below trend. Several major dairy states posted declines while some western and southern states rose.
A dairy economist expects the Class III price to reach the mid-to-high $16s by July, with dairy exports rising.
Slower production growth and rising exports support Class III milk prices, though higher feed costs limit margin gains.
farmprogress.comFran O'LearyJun 1, 2018After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA's April report showed milk output only 0.6% above a year earlier with flat cow numbers, and an economist expects Class III to climb into the mid-to-high $16s, a supply-tightness and bullish-sentiment driver; it is dated 2018-06-01, so it may have reflected rather than caused the move.
