
USDA lowered its 2021 and 2022 US milk production estimates on expectations of fewer cows and lower milk per cow. The September report also raised butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk estimates on improving demand, and raised the 2021 all-milk price forecast by 20 cents to $18.15/cwt and the 2022 forecast by 55 cents to $18.40/cwt.
Tighter milk output and higher dairy product prices point to firmer dairy prices and better margins, which can support demand for dairy-linked feed ingredients such as DDGS and reduce pressure on dairy herd feeding.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.