
USDA's April Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook raised 2026 US milk production to 235.3 billion pounds as the herd grows. Dairy export forecasts were raised to 19.5 billion pounds on a milk-fat basis and 49.0 billion on skim solids, with record February milk-fat exports.
Higher output combined with strong export demand gives mixed signals, but stronger product prices support milk values. Larger milk supply also means more byproduct availability for feed.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.