
USDA's March 2024 outlook lowered its 2024 forecasts for US dairy herd size, milk per cow and total milk production to 9.335 million head, 24,345 pounds and 227.3 billion pounds. It also raised butter and Cheddar price forecasts and cut dairy export forecasts while raising import forecasts.
Beef exports are expected to fall 8.3% in 2024 on tighter cattle supplies.
A smaller milk supply and firmer butter and cheese prices support dairy commodity values, while weaker exports and stronger imports tighten the domestic balance.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.