
USDA's November supply and demand report cut its 2021 and 2022 milk production forecasts on expectations of fewer cows and lower output per cow. Butter, nonfat dry milk and whey prices were raised for 2021, while cheese was lowered, and the 2021 all-milk price was raised five cents to $18.50 while 2022 rose $1.05 to $20.25.
Tighter expected milk supply and firmer product prices point to higher milk prices for dairy producers, with the 2022 all-milk forecast implying a sizable gain.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.