
USDA's December supply and demand report raised its forecasts for butter and cheese prices on firm demand, while nonfat dry milk and whey prices were left unchanged. USDA also raised its 2022 all-milk price forecast by 15 cents to $25.15 per hundredweight and its 2023 forecast by 10 cents to $22.70.
It expects milk production to rise in 2023 on higher output per cow and more cows.
Higher USDA price forecasts for cheese and butter support dairy product values, but expected 2023 milk output growth could cap gains. The net effect is a modestly bullish signal for milk prices.
After 237 past bullish report events, MILK moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.