
USDA's September supply and demand report raised its 2019 milk production forecast but cut 2020 output because of a smaller herd, partly offset by higher milk per cow. Class III and all-milk prices were raised for 2019 and 2020, with all-milk at $18.35 and $18.85 per cwt.
A tighter herd and lower 2020 output point to firmer milk prices for dairy-based feed demand, though weaker butterfat exports temper the outlook.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.