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USDA's August report lowered its 2023 milk production estimate to 227.9 billion lbs and reduced cow inventories for 2023 and 2024. It raised butter and cheese price forecasts, lowered whey forecasts, and projected lower dairy imports and exports.
Reduced milk output and higher product price forecasts point to firmer dairy prices, while lower export expectations limit upside from foreign demand.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.