
USDA's June supply and demand report lowered its 2019 milk production forecast because of slower milk-per-cow growth and fewer cows, and expects production to stay low in 2020. The agency raised its 2019 and 2020 butter and cheese price forecasts and cut the 2019 all-milk price by a nickel to $18.00.
Tighter US milk supply and higher feed costs support dairy product prices, which tends to be bullish for milk and bearish for dairy-based feed margins.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.