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USDA's January supply and demand report lowered milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020. Fat-basis and skim-solids export forecasts were raised on strong cheese and nonfat dry milk demand, while cheese, butter and whey price forecasts were cut.
Lower US milk output and higher exports tighten dairy supplies, supporting milk prices and modestly reducing domestic dairy feed demand.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.