
UW-Madison dairy experts report that the US dairy herd shrank to 9.333 million cows in May, down 0.9% year on year, with milk per cow below trend. Stocks of butter, cheese and powder are tightening, and they forecast better milk prices later in the year.
A shrinking herd and tighter dairy stocks point to firmer milk prices, which raises the value of milk relative to feed costs.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
A shrinking herd and tightening stocks of butter, cheese and powder, together with forecasts of better prices, support a supply-driven rally.