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Dairy economist Bob Cropp expects the Class III milk price to rise about $2.40 in June to around $16.30, after bottoming at $13.89 in February. USDA data showed US cow numbers down 0.9% year over year and milk per cow below trend.
Lower milk output is cutting butter, cheese and dry whey production.
Shrinking herd and milk supply tighten dairy product output and support higher milk prices, with forecasts pointing toward about $18 Class III by fall. Dairy feed buyers should expect firmer milk-price signals.
farmprogress.comFran O'LearyJul 1, 2019After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Cropp's forecast of Class III reaching $18 this fall, backed by a smaller herd and weaker cheese and whey output, supports bullish supply-side sentiment.
Supply-side bullish outlook (cow numbers down 0.9%, lower cheese and whey output, Class III forecast to rise toward $18) supports rallying futures and sentiment, though it was published two days before the move.
