
US dairy prices were at their highest since 2014 in early 2022, with Class III futures averaging $21.50 and Class IV averaging $23.30 per cwt. The author expects strong price support through the year as EU and New Zealand production is constrained.
Expected limits on EU and New Zealand milk expansion support dairy prices, though a US supply response could come by mid-2022, which would weigh on feed demand later.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.