The El Niño Effect: Why India's Kharif Recovery May Not Tell the Full Story

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+3.0%
• Jan 10, 2023What is El Niño, and how does it affect the weather and temperatures?-0.6%
• May 16, 2023Explainer: Why El Nino is a concern for Indian monsoon rains?-2.2%
• Mar 10, 2025India heatwave: Summer is early - and India’s economy is not ready for it+0.1%
• Mar 11, 2024Erratic Weather Lowers India’s Chance to Reap Record Wheat Crop-7.3%

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 13, 2024El Niño is dead. Here’s what to expect in the coming months | CNN-2.1%
• Jun 8, 2023Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb+3.5%
• Aug 19, 2025El Niño and La Niña affect grain production in Goiás and the Federal District - Cultivar Magazine+1.2%
• May 1, 2026"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers-1.4%
• Mar 9, 2017El Nino may arrive this summer and fall+0.5%