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Wheat futures fell again on 3 November, with Matif December wheat down EUR 3 to EUR 225.25 per tonne and Chicago December wheat down 6.75 cents to $5.99 3/4 per bushel, near a three-month low. Russia, Ukraine and the United States have confirmed peace talks in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November.
French exporters are winning Saudi Arabian business, with two vessels each loading more than 60,000 tonnes of French wheat at Rouen and La Pallice, reportedly the first large French wheat cargoes to Saudi Arabia since 2020.
Saudi Arabia normally buys Black Sea wheat, so Black Sea export disruption is shifting share to EU suppliers. Hopes of a Black Sea export recovery from peace talks are adding downward pressure on wheat prices.
en.boerenbusiness.nlJohn RamakerNov 4, 2026
boerenbusiness.nlJohn RamakerNov 4, 2026After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Watch the 29-second version · Wheat near a 3-month low as France wins Saudi business, Abu Dhabi talks set
