Talks Between Russia and Ukraine in Washington Scheduled for 05.11.26 Push Down Grain and Oilseed Contracts

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 26, 2022Turkey in talks with Russia, Ukraine over grain-export corridor-1.9%
• Jun 23, 2022Russia, Turkey to pursue talks on Ukraine grain exports+1.7%
• Feb 11, 2025Ukraine's Decreased Grain Production Creates Opportunities for Russia+2.0%
• May 31, 2022Turkey, Russia to discuss Ukraine exports corridor in talks on June 8 | Reuters-1.4%
• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+0.7%

After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 26, 2022Turkey in talks with Russia, Ukraine over grain-export corridor-4.6%
• Jun 23, 2022Russia, Turkey to pursue talks on Ukraine grain exports+1.6%
• May 31, 2022Turkey, Russia to discuss Ukraine exports corridor in talks on June 8 | Reuters-0.8%
• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+1.6%
• May 18, 2023Russia agrees to extend Ukraine grain deal in a boost for global food security | AP News+5.6%

After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 3, 2023GRAINS-Wheat rallies as tensions rise between Russia, Ukraine | Kitco News+0.9%
• Apr 1, 2026Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg-0.8%
• Sep 24, 2026US farmers push for China commitments on imports as Trump and Xi talk trade-1.9%
• Mar 17, 2022U.S. grains: May wheats limit-down as peace talks progress - Manitoba Co-operator+4.2%
• Jul 14, 2022Wheat, soybeans fall on expectations of progress in Ukraine shipping talks - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org-8.8%