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Grain and oilseed markets are quiet as traders await Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which could halt Black Sea attacks and increase grain flows. Russia has approved some Azov Sea vessels to sail to the Black Sea and started exports from Murmansk, while US Secretary of State Rubio doubts a negotiated peace is achievable.
A deal that restores Black Sea shipping would add wheat and corn supply and pressure prices, while Oilseed prices remain supported by high crude and record US soybean harvest pressure. Dollar moves ahead of US midterms also affect global grain pricing.
aafarmer.co.ukRichard LawrenceNov 3, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
