
A powerful El Niño is causing drought in South America, including an emergency declaration in Bolivia affecting 78,000 families, and heavy rain and flooding in India and Nepal. A cyclone made landfall on India's southeast coast, forcing evacuation of nearly 100,000 residents.
Rice and coffee supply risks from flooding and drought could tighten global food supplies, with the World Bank projecting food prices up 18% next year, supporting feed grain and rice prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.