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An ISEAS report says 2023-2024 is now an official El Niño year, which typically brings drought and heat to Southeast Asia. It projects El Niño will strengthen into late 2023 and early 2024, affecting winter and spring rice crops, and expects Thailand and Vietnam to reduce 2023-24 rice output.
Projected production losses in major exporters and in China and India could cut global rice supply and lift prices. Food security concerns may also encourage precautionary buying.
iseas.edu.sgElyssa Ludher, Paul TengJul 12, 2023After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
