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An IFPRI analysis said rice prices have risen 20% to 30% since September 2022, partly due to floods in Pakistan. Global rice stocks fell about 5% year over year and are projected to reach their lowest level since 2017/18.
The authors flagged El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole as risks to South and Southeast Asian output.
Tightening rice stocks combined with El Niño-related production risk in Asia could push rice prices higher and encourage further export restrictions, adding to upward pressure on prices.
ifpri.orgAbdullah Mamun, Joseph GlauberMay 15, 2023After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
