Russia keeps its wheat at home, and the USDA still counts on it leaving

After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Apr 12, 2023The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall+9.0%
• Nov 10, 2020USDA Lowers Corn, Soybean and Wheat Ending Stocks-2.8%
• Feb 22, 2024Global wheat shipments withstood the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine-4.3%
• Apr 1, 2026USDA leaves U.S. soybean, corn, wheat ending stocks unchanged-2.5%
• Apr 12, 2023USDA Reports Confirm the Tight U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet+9.0%

After 40 past neutral report events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 12, 2023The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall+1.5%
• May 19, 2020USDA: Wheat Stocks Drop, But Prices Hold+0.2%
• Aug 19, 2025Global wheat exports update: Russia’s wheat exports rise to 732,000 tonnes, while US exports forecast at 875 million bushels - Fastmarkets-1.9%
• May 15, 2023USDA sees 26pc drop in Australia's new-crop wheat - Grain Central-7.6%
• Nov 30, 2017USDA Reports Offer Early Snapshots of 2018/19 U.S. Winter Wheat Crop - U.S. Wheat Associates-1.8%