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Texas producers face long-term rainfall deficits that have left subsoil moisture short. Texas A&M AgriLife specialists say a historically strong El Niño this winter could replenish deep soil moisture, though drought-hit areas may still need more rain to recover.
Improved moisture in Texas could support winter and spring plantings in a drought-affected region, a modest supply-side factor for US grain and fiber crops. The effect on prices is limited because it is a forecast of potential relief rather than a confirmed crop change.
weatherforddemocrat.comMichael Miller/Texas A&M AgriLifeNov 3, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
