
Satellite estimates show soil moisture in Brazil's safrinha corn areas is not favorable as planting increases into February. Rainfall in Brazil has been erratic since late September, with dryness and heat stress at times, though January rains improved conditions for the soybean crop.
Rio Grande do Sul has seen less consistent showers in January.
Poor soil moisture during safrinha planting could reduce second-crop corn yields and tighten Brazilian corn export supplies, supporting corn prices and feed costs for buyers.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.