
Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southern soy state, is facing heavy downpours after a four-year drought that destroyed a significant share of its soybean crops. The article links the drought to a three-year La Niña that has now given way to El Niño rains.
Recovery of Rio Grande do Sul's soy output after the drought adds supply to the Brazilian crop, which is bearish for soybean and meal prices, while excess rain could disrupt planting.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.