Crude oil fell back to mid-October levels at the start of the week, pulling oilseed futures lower. Euronext rapeseed for February and May 2027 slipped below €550/t before recovering somewhat on Tuesday.
Soybean futures in Chicago hit their lowest level in about eleven weeks after USDA raised its US soybean crop estimate to a record.
Weaker crude reduces the biofuel pull on vegetable oils, and a record US soybean crop adds supply, so soybean and rapeseed meal values face downward pressure for feed buyers. Rising river levels could ease logistics and restore trade flows.
After 312 past bearish macro events, BRENT moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, SBO moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.