US Crop Intelligence — Winter Wheat Opens at 44% Good or Excellent as Southern Plains Lag

After 322 past bullish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-7.6%
• May 12, 2026Wheat Extends Gains as Poor Weather Worsens US Crop Conditions - Bloomberg-2.3%
• Jan 30, 2018U.S. grains: Winter wheat jumps as crop conditions drop - Grainews+1.9%
• Jan 11, 2019Small U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Likely - ProAg+1.1%
• Jun 29, 2017Wheat surges on weather concerns in Plains - Brownfield Ag News+15.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2025Winter crop sowing is proceeding at a rapid pace in France-0.4%
• Nov 4, 2019Winter Weather Outlook for 2019-2020 | Integrated Crop Management+0.9%
• Oct 25, 2021November and Winter Weather Outlooks for 2021 | Integrated Crop Management+3.5%
• Aug 30, 2020Southern Hemisphere weather watch for wheat market sentiment: Grain Market Daily - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org+0.2%
• Jun 25, 2021Corn, wheat, soy steady as US crop prospects assessed - Markets - Business Recorder+5.6%

After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 17, 2018GRAINS-Wheat rallies as weather worries return, soy steady after slide+4.0%
• Jun 25, 2021Corn, wheat, soy steady as US crop prospects assessed - Markets - Business Recorder+5.5%
• Oct 24, 2017Grain prices: wet weather hits winter sowings across Europe - 24 October 2017 Premium-0.8%
• Dec 14, 2017South American crop and weather update - Morning Ag Clips-2.6%
• Dec 3, 2020Soybeans firm after 2-week low, wheat slips on Australian crop | Financial Post+0.5%