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The Oceanic Niño Index remains at +2.2, a strong El Niño reading, while rainfall across the Malaysian and Indonesian palm belts is broadly normal. The analysis expects lagged bunch-weight losses over the following six to twelve months.
Near-term palm output is supported by normal weather, but the expected lagged yield loss points to tighter palm oil supply later, which is supportive of prices and of substitute oils and meals.
analytics.palmoileconomics.comNov 3, 2026
palmoileconomics.comNov 3, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, SBO moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
