Australia's Bureau of Meteorology raised its ENSO outlook to La Niña, though it expects a weak, short-lived event through early autumn 2018. MIDF Research said the rains could flood Malaysian and Indonesian palm plantations, disrupting harvesting and transport.
Flood disruption to fresh fruit bunch harvests could tighten palm oil supply, while La Niña's historical link to drier South American planting would support soybean oil and meal prices.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.