Australia's Bureau of Meteorology activated a La Nina Watch, giving a 50% chance of La Nina forming in late 2017. MIDF Research said excess rain in Malaysia and Indonesia could hurt output in flood-prone states, and it expects palm oil to reach RM3,500 per tonne if a strong La Nina develops.
The possible La Nina shifts the weather risk toward wetter conditions in key palm producers, which could reduce output and lift prices, though the impact depends on whether the event materialises and how strong it is.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.