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Indonesia's dry season is forecast to be the most severe since 2019, peaking in September and October. The BMKG expects the rainy season to begin in November in more than 60% of the country, but agriculture will be affected.
Dry weather in Indonesia threatens palm oil yields, which can tighten vegetable oil supply and lift palm oil prices.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.