
ICDX CPO contract prices rose 0.86% in the week to November 3, to IDR 11,720 per kg. Concerns about El Niño-related drought in Southeast Asia and expected Indian demand ahead of Diwali supported prices.
Malaysian vegetable oil exports rose 4% to 6% in October, with India the largest buyer. Indonesia also plans to return about 200,000 hectares of plantations in forest areas to forest.
Expected pre-Diwali Indian buying and El Niño supply fears push palm prices higher, raising costs for vegetable oil users. Land returns in Indonesia could cut long-term plantation output.
After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.