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The MPOC expects CPO prices to stay above RM4,600 per tonne as supply tightens into the fourth quarter. NOAA gives a 90% likelihood of El Niño developing between September and November, potentially among the strongest on record.
India is expected to raise palm imports amid Black Sea sunflower oil disruptions.
Seasonal production decline in Q4 and El Niño risk to 2027 output support palm prices. Redirected Indian import demand toward palm adds further upward pressure.
palmpulse.orgPalm Pulse MPOCSep 3, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
NOAA's 90% El Niño probability signals lower future palm yields and tighter Q4 supply, and expected higher Indian imports add demand, which fuels bullish sentiment.
