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Analysts expect crude palm oil to stay range-bound through 2026 before rising in early 2027 as El Niño disrupts Southeast Asian plantation yields. Indonesia may raise its biodiesel mandate to B60 in 2027, pulling 5 to 6 million tonnes from export markets.
A proposed Indonesian land reform law adds regulatory uncertainty for production.
El Niño-driven yield losses and a possible B60 mandate would remove significant supply from global markets in 2027. That tightening supports palm oil prices and, through substitution, other vegetable oils.
briefasia.comTran Quoc BaoOct 8, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
