
Market experts at the PIPOC congress forecast crude palm oil prices averaging about RM4,100 (US$871) per tonne in 2024, or around US$850 or higher. Flat global palm supply, El Niño-related yield losses, and continued Indonesian biodiesel demand under B35 underpin the outlook.
The article notes the current El Niño is weaker than the 2015/16 event, with impacts likely in the second half of 2024.
A forecast rise toward US$850 per tonne points to firmer palm oil costs for feed fat buyers next year. Biodiesel mandates and weather-driven yield risk support the price outlook.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 40 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.3%), and +6.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.