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Dry weather in Ukraine and Russia has cut the combined sunflowerseed forecast by 5.5 million tons since May, leaving global output 5.3 million tons below 2019/20. Declines are also forecast for the EU, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Argentina, though the global crop remains the third largest on record.
Russia and Ukraine supply over three-quarters of traded sunflower meal and oil, so the shortfall tightens global protein meal and vegetable oil supplies. Meal and oil prices are likely to stay firm.
tridge.comVictor LangatNov 11, 2020Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
