APK-Inform cut its Russian sunflower harvest forecast by 9% to 15.2 million tons, with Icarus lowering its estimate to 15 million tons. Early yields are the lowest in five years at 1.6 t/ha, and Ukrainian purchase prices stabilised at 18000-18500 UAH/ton.
A smaller Russian crop supports Black Sea sunflower seed and meal prices and tightens export availability for feed users.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.