The Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries said palm oil prices will keep rising in the first half of 2021 as heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia keeps global supply tight until the first quarter. It expects output to recover in the second half of 2021 as high prices encourage better management.
The council also flagged structural supply constraints from slower new plantings in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Persistent weather-related supply disruption and limited new planting support palm oil prices into 2021. The expected tightness also supports demand switching from other vegetable oils, given the deficits in soy, sunflower and rapeseed oil.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.