
Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose 3.3% in July to 2.63 million tonnes, a fourth straight monthly increase, as production rose 9.4% and exports rose 14.5%. Research firms still expect crude palm oil prices to stay firm in the second half of 2026 on El Niño concerns and tighter global supply.
Expected weather-driven supply tightness and steady biodiesel demand should support palm oil prices despite rising inventories, which matters for feed-fat costs.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.