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ING's commodities commentary questions whether recent hopes for a US-Iran deal are genuine, following sharp swings in oil prices tied to peace talk headlines.
If diplomacy stalls, Middle East supply risk returns and crude and diesel prices can rebound quickly, which feeds into feed-ingredient costs through energy and freight.
seekingalpha.comSeeking AlphaNov 3, 2026
think.ing.comWarren Patterson, Ewa MantheyNov 3, 2026After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 134 past geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.8%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
