Brazilian producers had planted 53% of the projected 2026/27 soybean area as of the Thursday before publication, according to AgRural, up from 40% a week earlier and 47% a year earlier. Corn first-crop planting in center-south Brazil reached 63%.
Planting pace is ahead of last year, which points to an orderly Brazilian supply outlook and limits support for soybean and meal prices. Dry areas in the north-east that are stalled could become a local yield concern if rain stays uneven.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.