
Brent traded near $104 and WTI near $96 on Tuesday after both fell about 7.5% on Monday, their steepest slump in over three months. The drop followed signals from Washington and Tehran that they are willing to negotiate, while differences over sanctions, Iran's nuclear programme and Hormuz remain.
European gas futures fell almost 9% and US heating oil had its sharpest decline in six months.
The sharp fall in energy prices lowers fertilizer and freight costs on the margin, though it reverses only part of October's rally. Renewed hostilities would quickly restore the premium.
After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.