Ukraine continues attacks on Russian oil refineries despite US pressure

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2025Oil climbs more than 1% on OPEC action, Ukraine attack+1.5%
• Sep 24, 2025Diesel Traders Bet on Price Spike as Russia Refineries Hit - TT-0.1%
• Jul 30, 2026Diesel Prices Climb Over Middle East Conflict and Refinery Attacks - WSJ-13.4%
• Feb 18, 2026Oil settles up 4% on Iran-US tensions, Russia-Ukraine talks end without breakthrough | Reuters+13.1%
• Jan 15, 2025Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions-1.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2022Oil tops $105/bbl after Russia attacks Ukraine | Reuters+18.2%
• Feb 24, 2022European gas prices soar and oil tops $105 after Russia attacks Ukraine+18.2%
• Oct 23, 2025Putin defiant after Trump sanctions Russian oil companies over Ukraine | Reuters+4.1%
• Dec 19, 2025Oil prices climb as US blocks Venezuelan tankers, eyes on Russia-Ukraine talks | Reuters+3.1%
• Aug 21, 2025Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand | Reuters+1.0%