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Crude oil and refined product futures fell sharply on Monday as officials from the US and Iran indicated they were not ruling out a negotiated settlement to the conflict. December WTI was down $6.75 to $97.37/bbl and January Brent fell $7.32 to $106.11/bbl, while ULSD futures lost about 4%.
Easing Gulf conflict risk removes part of the energy and freight premium that has been lifting diesel, fertilizer and feed-transport costs. Lower crude and diesel would ease input costs for feed producers, though the price path depends on whether talks progress.
marketwatch.comNov 2, 2026After 242 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -7.5% to +1.8%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 239 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -2.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -8.4% to +1.9%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -8.4% to +4.0%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
See the visual summary · Oil falls sharply as US and Iran signal openness to talks
