British Pound climbs above 1.3400 as Oil rout outshines strong US PMI

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2026The Commodities Feed: Oil slumps as the US and Iran pause strikes | articles | ING THINK-5.8%
• Mar 9, 2020U.S. shale producers rush to cut spending, output as oil prices tank-23.0%
• Apr 1, 2026Oil Declines as US, Israel Seek to Ease Concerns Over Iran War-6.6%
• Oct 29, 2026Crude oil futures fall as US seeks to revive Iran peace talks - The HinduBusinessLine-2.3%
• Oct 29, 2026WTI Oil eases from highs on Iran peace hopes but remains above $100.00-2.3%

After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Jan 20, 2026Euro Strengthens Above $1.17-1.7%
• Apr 14, 2026Oil Down 3% as New US-Iran Talks Seen-0.6%
• Jan 22, 2026EUR/USD rallies above 1.1740 as easing trade tensions weaken Dollar-1.5%
• Mar 10, 2022Sterling Vulnerable, Pound To Dollar Rate Lifeline As Global Equities Surge+0.2%
• Mar 9, 2022Euro surges as oil prices ease and investors embrace risk-0.3%