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Soybean futures fell 6.4% from 1,303.0 cents per bushel on October 6 to 1,219.6 cents on November 2. Brazil's currency weakened sharply after the October 25 presidential election, and Brazilian soymeal FOB Paranaguá fell $14.22 to $384.92 per ton on October 26.
CONAB forecasts Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 181.6 million tons.
A weaker real makes Brazilian soybean and meal cheaper in dollar terms, adding export competition to US supplies and pressuring global soy and meal prices. Uncertain Chinese demand compounds the downside.
buyermetricsnews.comResearch TeamNov 2, 2026After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
