
Global equities rose in early trading as investors awaited Apple earnings, while oil prices slid after talks between Iranian and Qatari mediators on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Brent crude futures fell about 4.5%.
Easing hopes for an end to the Iran conflict reduce the Middle East supply-risk premium on crude, which lowers diesel and energy input costs and can ease feed-ingredient and freight pricing over time.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.