
Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, returning to levels seen before the Iran-Israel conflict, after a fragile ceasefire between the two countries. Benchmark crude dropped 6.1% to $67.14 a barrel.
Removal of the conflict premium pulls crude back toward pre-war levels, lowering energy and transport costs that feed into feed prices.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Crude dropped 6.1% to $67.14, fully erasing the conflict premium and confirming the sharp sentiment-driven sell-off.
Crude fell 6.1% to $67.14 on June 24, back to pre-conflict levels as the ceasefire erased the geopolitical premium.