Lula’s Election Win Sends Brazil’s Currency, and Its Soybean Edge, Lower

After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jun 6, 2018Brazil currency skids as election woes add to pessimism-2.7%
• Oct 26, 2026Elections in Brazil: Lula returns to power, markets react with panic. Brazilian ETF loses nearly 15% in Tokyo. What about USDBRL, soybeans, sugar, BRAComp, and ETFs?+7.6%
• Dec 19, 2024Why Brazil’s currency is plunging-0.5%
• May 18, 2017U.S. grains: Soybeans fall as Brazilian currency dives - AgCanada+5.6%
• Jan 23, 2020With a Big Crop Expected, Brazil's Soybean Harvest Is Slow+0.7%

After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 26, 2026Elections in Brazil: Lula returns to power, markets react with panic. Brazilian ETF loses nearly 15% in Tokyo. What about USDBRL, soybeans, sugar, BRAComp, and ETFs?-1.5%
• May 18, 2017U.S. grains: Soybeans fall as Brazilian currency dives - AgCanada-2.8%
• May 18, 2017Brazil's Scandal Hits Soybean Prices-2.8%
• Oct 26, 2026Soybeans Hit 2-Month Low as Lula’s Win Lifts China Trade Outlook-1.5%
• Mar 28, 2019No, Brazil's Currency Is Not Going To R$5 If Pension Reform Fails+1.3%

After 117 past bearish macro events, SBM moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Dec 19, 2024Why Brazil’s currency is plunging+7.4%
• May 18, 2017U.S. grains: Soybeans fall as Brazilian currency dives - AgCanada-2.8%
• Dec 16, 2024Brazil currency hits record low amid ongoing fiscal woes+2.8%
• Oct 29, 2026Brazil soybean meal prices post sharpest daily drop since April after presidential election | World Ports Organization-3.3%
• Jan 22, 2024Brazil's real falls after Lula unveils 're-industrialization' plan-1.6%