
European gas prices on the Balkan Gas Hub and TTF remain near record levels, after TTF reached 103.94 EUR/MWh on 30 October before easing to about 102 EUR/MWh. The easing reflected hopes for diplomacy around the Iran war, while LNG supply from the Persian Gulf stays significantly disrupted by Hormuz security threats.
European gas storage was about 74.6% full on 1 November, with withdrawals underway.
Record European gas prices raise nitrogen fertiliser production costs and feed the energy cost base for European livestock and feed processing. Prices could stay elevated if Hormuz disruption persists and storage tightens further into winter.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.